The battle for central India

However, with general elections around the corner, both the BJP and the Congress have a lot more at stake in MP and Chhattisgarh.

For the BJP, regaining Chhattisgarh and retaining MP is essential to broadcast the message that it is invincible in the Hindi heartland, that the Karnataka loss earlier this year was an aberration and that the party has fireproofed itself from anti-incumbency. This is all the more important because the BJP has sought votes in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the PM leading the campaign and underwriting the party’s welfare promises as his guarantees. A defeat would be more than just an electoral loss for the party. The Congress is desperate to win both the states to signal to its INDIA allies that the party counts in northern India. It won a narrow mandate in MP in 2018 but could not hold the party together and complete a full term. Chhattisgarh has been its showpiece state where welfarism and its current fascination for OBC politics have gelled well. In both Chhattisgarh and MP, the Congress outreach to voters projected the local leadership — Nath in MP and incumbent CM Baghel in Chhattisgarh. This tactic, an admission of the limited vote-catching abilities of the party’s central leaders, worked to its advantage in Karnataka. The outcomes in these two states are likely to influence the tactics both parties are likely to adopt for the general election campaign: On test are the BJP’s attempts to woo the tribal vote and the Congress’s new avatar as an OBC-friendly outfit.