The stakes are high for both the BJP, which is ruling the state at present, and the Congress which hopes to return to power after the elections. Former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), which has never managed a majority on its own but has often played a key role in state politics, hopes to once again play the role of a kingmaker.
In the last assembly elections in 2018, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats but the Congress with 78 seats and the JD(S) with 38 seats had joined hands to keep the saffron party out of power. However, the Congress-JD(S) coalition could not survive long with the BJP successfully managing to wean away MLAs from both the parties and form its own government in 2019. Many of the rebel MLAs eventually won byelections, consolidating the BJP’s rule in the state.
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The BJP has at present 121 members, the Congress 70 and the JD(S) 30.
Al the three key players are once again geared up for another round of very intense electoral battle. Here’s a look at how they are placed:
BJP
The ruling BJP is going all out to win Karnataka elections. Riding high on its recent sweep in the northeast, the saffron party hopes to retain the key southern state ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Basavraj Bommai, the BJP chief minister who replaced the high-profile party strongman B S Yeddiyurappa, faces an uphill challenge. His government faces serious allegations of corruption.
One of the key strategies of the BJP to counter anti-incumbency in state elections is to change the leadership like it did in Uttarakhand and Tripura.
However, in Karnataka, the party has decided to go to polls with Bommai as the chief minister. This is possibly because Bommai has the backing of Yediyurappa, who is still a force to reckon with in Karnataka politics.
In fact, the BJP has taken several steps in recent weeks to keep Yediyurappa in good humour, keeping in mind the clout he yields among the Lingayats.
As always, it is Prime Minister Modi who will be leading the BJP campaign in the state. PM Modi has already made 7 trips to Karnataka. The BJP hopes to gain from his extensive campaigning and counter the opposition charges of corruption.
The Bommai government has taken a bold move by taking some key decisions to change the existing pattern of reservations in the state. Its decision to end the 4% of reservations for Muslims in favour of two prominent communities of the state – Veerashaiva-Lingayats and Vokkaligas – may also play a significant role in how the parties perform.
In Karnataka, Lingayats and Vokkaligas are among the most powerful communities and their backing is critical across a large number of constituencies.
For the BJP, a win in Karnataka will keep the momentum going in the run up to 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It will help the party further consolidate its southern foothold and make inroads into other southern states.
Congress
For the Congress, Karnataka elections are literally a do-or-die battle. The party needs a victory here to prove a point at the national level where it is trying to take the leadership role in the opposition ranks. For that to happen, the Congress has to show that it is capable of taking on and defeating the BJP in a direct contest. This is important because the regional parties, which have defeated the BJP in their bastions, have questioned the grand old party’s ability to take on the saffron party.
If the Congress hopes to lead the opposition forces in 2024, it will have to win Karnataka. A victory here will also boost the Congress for the tougher electoral fights that await the party in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In all these states, the Congress and the BJP will be locked in a direct contest.
The Congress can take solace from the fact that the state of Karnataka has alternated parties and hence it can hope to gain from this phenomenon.
For the Congress, much would depend on how well its two leaders, former chief minister Siddaramaiah and its state chief DK Shivakumar, manage to work together. The two have a track record of discord which could adversely affect the party’s prospects.
The party would hope to gain from Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra – which had travelled extensively in the state. It may also try and extract mileage from the expulsion of Rahul Gandhi from the Lok Sabha following his conviction in a defamation case on Modi surname.
JD(S)
The JD(S) has been a key regional player in the politics of Karnataka. Despite being in the third position in terms of numbers, the party has led the coalition in the state on two occasions. Deve Gowda and his son Kumaraswamy hold considerable clout in the region of Old Mysuru which has 61 assembly seats. The party’s highest tally till now has been 58 which it won in 2004.
Kumaraswamy has been campaigning hard, visiting constituencies where the party fancies its chances. His strategy is clear – to concentrate on seats where the party can win instead of focussing on all the 224 assembly constituencies.
The JD(S) faces a tough challenge from both the BJP and the Congress. However, if it can manage to win a reasonable number of seats, it could actually end up playing the kingmaker or even the king once again.
Whether that happens or not, we will know on May 13.
source
The post is published through a syndicated feed and attributed to Times Of India
